Complex analysis of environmental quality and population health risk in the regions with prerequisites for stress ecological situations

Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, SB RAS, Barnaul

Head of the Institute:

Yuri I.Vinokurov, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor
105 Papanintsev Str., Barnaul, 656099, Russia
Tel.: 3852-36-78-55
Fax: 3852-24-03-96

Principal researchers:

I.A.Khlebovich, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, leading researcher
I.N.Rotanova, Ph.D., Scientific Secretary

Project objectives

Development of methods for complex analysis of environmental quality and determination of safety levels for population activity in the regions with potential natural and anthropogenic stress situations. The southern part of Western Siberia is taken as a case study.

Background and significance of objectives

The Project is aimed at revealing main factors giving rise to stressed natural and anthropogenic situations in Siberia. The Altai Territory, Novosibirsk Region, Khakass Republic, Kemerovo Region, Altai Republic, Tomsk Region and other large settlements are taken as model regions. They are constantly exposed to anthropogenic and industrial impact enhanced by transboundary pollutant transport. The data obtained on the regions mentioned above support the availability of environmental stress. Environmental risk depends heavily on geographical conditions of the region. The Project provides for the development of a scientific basis for environmental quality management.

The goal of the project is to perfect complex spatial analysis of the environment under anthropogenic stress using cartographic modelling and GIS technologies to reduce risk of emergency situations development as well as to create conditions for human survival.

Complex analysis resulting in regional classification on ecological risk sources is based on wide use of empirical, monitoring and statistical information on environmental quality and population health. It is supposed to work out interrelated structural graphic models, algorithms, maps allowing regional features and conditions for emergency situations development to be specified.

This analysis is based on system approach and allows assessing the qualitative and quantitative values that define the degree of anthropogenic stress and the possibility for emergency ecological situation development. The integration of initial data on pollutants, geosystems self-regeneration, accumulation and redistribution of major toxicants, sources of water consumption, etc. provides the complex cartographic program implementation, allows carrying out the territory classification on potential human diseases and specific ranging in order to substantiate the idea of environmental rehabilitation.

There is a considerable body of data on complex analysis of territories, risk assessment of natural and anthropogenic emergency situations, use of data on remote sounding and space information, ecological, medico-geographical and nozogeographical mapping, mathematical modelling, etc.

The specific results on water quality were obtained including the plan of physical and geographical zonation as well as landscape and landscape-ecological maps of the southern part of Western Siberia. The regional features of the biogeochemical situation in land ecosystems and their change due to anthropogenic stress were specified and studied. The results on limiting indices effecting the heavy metals and mercury entering, redistribution and accumulation in aquatic ecosystems were obtained. The hydroeconomic and ecological situation on the Ob River and its catchment was analysed and estimated. The assessment of environmental pollution and the consequences of nuclear weapon tests on the Semipalatinsk Testing Ground for the population of the Altai Territory was made. Single units of the program on population rehabilitation were worked out and “Environment and the health of Altai Territory population”, “Infectious morbidity of the Altai Republic population” maps were constructed.

The fundamentality of research consists in development of complex conceptual plan of spatial analysis, revealing the role of natural and anthropogenic prerequisites for public activity safety.

Research plan: approaches and methods

To solve the major problems, the following procedures and approaches will be implemented within the framework of the project proposed:

Expected results

The project implementation is supposed to specify prerequisites for emergency situation development in different regions of Siberia. It is planned to work out measures to prevent the emergency situations development and to elaborate the concept on rehabilitation.

The investigations carried out will allow the following regional problems to be solved:

The results obtained can be widely used for preparing reports and documents made by regional authorities and Committees on environment protection to solve the problems of applied ecology, natural resources management, environmental improvement, etc.

List of publications of participants related to the project